By Peet Serfontein & Zimele Mbanjwa
Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon (WBHO) is a South Africa-based company principally engaged in civil engineering and building contracting activities in Africa and the United Kingdom (UK). Despite sector challenges, the group maintains a strong order book and solid balance sheet, underpinned by a disciplined approach to project execution and risk management. WBO remains a key player in Southern Africa's infrastructure development landscape.
Technically, significant volume accumulation at lower price levels combined with the current price being above these high-activity zones, along with relatively low resistance in the immediate vicinity, makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the insert on the main chart).
In this chart, we observe a pronounced concentration of historical volume at much lower price levels, which suggests a strong base of long-term support. The current price of ~18 500, as indicated by the vertical dashed line, is positioned above this high-volume accumulation zone. This can support a bull case as it implies that investors bought at lower levels and may be less inclined to sell unless the price advances further.
The price is currently below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which could present a healthy consolidation phase within a larger bull trend, potentially offering an opportunity for accumulation before a renewed move higher. The price is also in the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Price Cycle.
Fading downside momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, as well as a sideways movement of the On-Balance Volume indicator, are also encouraging.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | WBO |
| Industry | Capital Goods |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 13.03 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 22.21% |
| Return Year-to-Date | -20.05% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 183.50 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 249.96 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 152.13 |
| Financial Year End | June |
| The share has so far underperformed this year; however, various technical indicators suggest upside to come. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 18.20 | 27.09 | 32.29 | 30.60 |
| Growth (%) | 48.82 | 19.22 | -5.23 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 2.30 | 8.42 | 10.03 | 10.20 |
| Growth (%) | 266.09 | 19.12 | 1.69 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 6.77 | 5.68 | 6.00 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 4.59 | 5.47 | 5.56 | |
| Bottom-line growth is expected to remain robust over the short term. Estimates are more conservative medium term. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view
| Share Name and Position | SHP - Stop Loss (Close the position) |
QLT - BUY (Continue to hold) |
NTC - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 292.01 | 35.27 | 14.14 |
| Current | 270.44 | 38.69 | 14.33 |
| Movement | -7.4% | +9.7% | +1.3% |
| The share triggered its stop-loss level, prompting us to close the position. |
The price is at the start of wave five of the Elliott Wave Theory, which remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside price momentum supports the trade.
Our profit target is R41.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R35.50. Exit the trade on 14 July 2025. |
A double-bottom pattern remains of interest. The stock is testing its 200-day SMA. Fading upside momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R16.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R13.50. Exit the trade on 21 July 2025. |
| Share Name and Position | ABG - BUY (Continue to hold) |
GRT - BUY (Continue to hold) |
STXFIN - BUY (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 171.50 | 13.22 | 21.75 |
| Current | 172.28 | 13.04 | 21.27 |
| Movement | +0.5% | -1.4% | -2.2% |
|
A favourable peer comparison for the share remains of interest. Dipped back below its 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum supports the trade.
Our profit target is set at R200.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R160.00. Exit the trade on 4 November 2025. |
The share is trading at one of the highest price bins out of the price distribution analysis. Testing its 200-day SMA. Fading upside price momentum is a concern.
Our profit target is R16.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R12.00. Exit the trade on 17 November 2025. |
A price above major support remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Fading upside price momentum is a concern.
We maintain our profit target at R25.00 with a trailing stop-loss at R20.50. Exit the position around 15 September 2025. |
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