By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position. Our upside target is set at R30.70. We recommend a stop-loss at R26.25.
Pepkor Holdings is one of South Africa's largest and most resilient retail groups, operating a diverse portfolio of value-oriented brands across clothing, footwear, homeware and general merchandise. The group has extensive market share in the lower- to middle-income consumer markets, supported by a wide store network across South Africa and select international regions, as well as expanding digital channels. In addition to retail, Pepkor provides financial and technology-enabled services such as credit, payments and connectivity, enhancing customer access and loyalty.
The company's focus on affordability, high-volume turnover and disciplined inventory management has enabled consistent revenue and earnings performance even in challenging economic conditions. These strengths position Pepkor as a leading player in the value retail segment, benefiting from defensive demand and strong brand equity.
Technically, a developing symmetrical triangle pattern makes the share an interesting candidate for a long position (see the blue converging trendlines on the price action as well as the insert on the main chart). This pattern supports a bullish outlook, reflecting a period of consolidation in which selling pressure is absorbed while rising lows indicate strengthening demand. As volatility contracts, symmetrical triangles often precede a decisive move. When they form after an uptrend or near key support, the probability of an upside breakout increases as buyers continue to accumulate.
The price structure supports the potential development of Wave 5 of the Elliott Wave framework, following a strong Wave 3, a brief Wave 2, and a more extended Wave 4 that aligns with the rule of alternation. This setup signals a renewed, orderly advance in Wave 5-typically less explosive than Wave 3 but consistent with strengthening trend dynamics and rising market confidence.
We suggest a medium capital at-risk allocation to this trade. Increase exposure on a break above R28.
| Share Information | |
|---|---|
| Share Code | PPH |
| Industry | Consumer Discretionary Distribution |
| Market Capital (ZAR) | 100.83 billion |
| One Year Total Return | 7.95% |
| Return Year-to-Date | .38% |
| Current Price (ZAR) | 27.30 |
| 52 Week High (ZAR) | 29.40 |
| 52 Week Low (ZAR) | 21.45 |
| Financial Year End | September |
| The company's beta of 1.01 indicates that its share price generally moves in line with the broader market. | |
| Consensus Expectations (Bloomberg) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
| Headline Earnings per Share (ZAR) | 1.59 | 1.83 | 2.12 | 2.45 |
| Growth (%) | 14.96 | 15.64 | 15.84 | |
| Dividend Per Share (ZAR) | 0.53 | 0.61 | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| Growth (%) | 14.53 | 16.31 | 15.72 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 14.93 | 12.91 | 11.14 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 2.22 | 2.59 | 2.99 | |
| Markets forecasts imply Pepkor can deliver sustained mid-teens earnings per share and dividend per share growth through FY28. | ||||
Buy/Sell Rationale:
Technical Analysis:
Fundamental view:
| Share Name and Position | BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
QLT SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
MTM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 944.40 | 41.94 | 36.80 |
| Current | 957.80 | 42.55 | 37.67 |
| Movement | +1.4% | +1.5% | +2.4% |
|
A developing bullish pennant remains constructive, with the price holding above the 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside momentum supports the trade thesis.
Our profit target is maintained at R1 042.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R933.00. |
The positive alignment of trend, momentum and cycle conditions remains constructive, with the price holding above its 200-day simple moving average. Fading downside momentum continues to support the trade view.
Our profit target is maintained at R46.20, with an initial and trailing stop-loss set at R39.85. |
A stable formation of rising troughs and recurring upside impulses remains constructive, with the price holding above its 200-day simple moving average. The emergence of upside momentum supports the trade view.
Our profit target is maintained at R42.00, with an initial and trailing stop-loss set at R35.00. |
|
| Time to exit | 6 April 2026 | 23 March 2026 | 22 June 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | SHP SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
SLM SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
VOD SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | 271.74 | 94.83 | 132.90 |
| Current | 266.42 | 101.00 | 150.56 |
| Movement | -2.0% | +6.5% | +13.3% |
|
Price action near the lower boundary of an upward-sloping linear regression channel remains of interest. Trading below the 200-day simple moving average, the setup is regarded as a counter-trend strategy, with downside momentum a noted risk.
The profit target is maintained at R307.00, with an initial and trailing stop-loss at R262.00. |
Based on its historical tendency for strong follow-through after recovery phases and an improving return profile into 2025, the outlook for further upside in 2026 remains favourable. The price is holding above its 200-day simple moving average, with upside momentum supporting the trade.
Our profit target is maintained at R110.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R97.90. |
Approaching a time-based exit, the current phase of low volatility remains constructive, potentially signalling market stability and underlying accumulation. The price is holding above its 200-day simple moving average, with upside momentum continuing to support the trade.
The profit target is maintained at R157.00, with a trailing stop-loss at R145.00. |
|
| Time to exit | 11 March 2026 | 24 February 2026 | 11 February 2026 |
| Share Name and Position | ANH SA - Buy (Continue to hold) |
|---|---|
| Entry | 1 031.56 |
| Current Price | 1 147.56 |
| Movement | +11.2% |
| Comment | <
Price action remains firmly contained within an upward-sloping linear regression channel and has crossed above its 200-day simple moving average. Upside momentum continues to support the trade strategy.
The profit target is maintained at R1 255.00, with an initial stop-loss at R942.00 and a trailing stop-loss at R1 098.00. |
| Time to exit | 17 February 2026 |
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